With an industry devoted to predicting the future, how did so many experts fail to see the financial crisis coming? And how do trendspotters pick themselves up from this collective failure and equip themselves for the future? By Magnus Lindkvist.

The failure to predict the financial crisis of 2008 was a colossal failure for everyone who makes a living by analysing the present and predicting the future. As late as May 2008, our scenarios for the future were rosy portraits of a brave new world with untold riches and opportunities. Instead, we were drawn into the most severe recession for decades. So why was the financial crisis so unexpected, and what new ways of thinking can it teach us?

"Our unwillingness to pick up negative signals, exponential change and increased instability make many of us assume we should give up the idea of predicting the future."

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